Iran could be next Syria, warns former British ambassador

[Smoke rises after a strike in Tehran on 2 March 2026 (Photo: Mohsen Ganji / Alamy)]

Iran could easily end up mired in civil war like Syria, Afghanistan or Libya, a prospect the US and Israel have ignored, a former UK ambassador to Iran has warned.

Sir Richard Dalton, Britain’s top official in Tehran from 2003 to 2006, said the break up of Iran could see regime supporters take up arms against an uprising which would also be armed.

Countries across the region and those further afield with interests in Iran could be drawn into the fighting to try to control a spillover of refugees and disorder.

“One’s sympathy goes out to the 85 million Iranians who did not deserve that – if that comes to pass – and who have been under an oppressive government for too long and do not deserve the fate of the Syrians, the Afghans and the Libyans,” Dalton told *Declassified* on Monday.

In the face of such prospects, Dalton said the British government should be calling for a ceasefire and working with other “middle-ranking powers” to make it happen.

Less than two months ago, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney [called][1] on “middle powers” to act together and counter great power rivalry which he said had abandoned even the pretense of rules-based order in the world.

But Carney’s evocation of countries banding together “has evaporated at the first whiff of gun smoke”, said Dalton, as Canada and Australia publicly supported the US-Israel attack on Iran.

“At least [the British government] has refused to do so explicitly, and are crafting their responses as dealings with the consequences responsibly,” he said.

“The terms of Britain’s involvement are strictly drawn and correctly drawn as carrying out their duties as allies and partners of certain countries in the Middle East who have a right of self-defence against the attacks coming in from Iran and let us hope that the British government is resolute about not being drawn in further.”

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## **Nuclear propaganda**

He said the idea that Iran’s nuclear programmes constituted an imminent threat was not borne out by Israeli and American intelligence assessments and, instead, was used by the two countries “to propagandise their own peoples as well as the international community”.

“What we saw when Israel and the US put in place their long-planned attack on Iran was a geopolitical objective going back many years in both countries but kept under control hitherto by fear of the consequences to obliterate the Islamic Republic,” he said.

“In so doing, they have destroyed an effective diplomatic channel to deal with those problems and they’ve brought on the world the kind of complications in security and the economy that we are seeing again to develop.”

Dalton said he now thinks both sides “are settling down to slug it out and see whose supply of missiles lasts longest”.

Iran will likely continue attacking targets across the region as long as they can hold out against continued Israeli and American attacks to degrade Iran’s capabilities.

The drone attack at RAF Akrotiri on Sunday evening, he said, was a warning that British assets in the region are now a legitimate target for the Iranians.

They “will not distinguish [between] attacks to its missiles and other wider attacks on its political, military and economic institutions and leaders,” he said.

“They will say that these are attacks facilitated by Britain on Iran as part of the United States campaign to destroy the Islamic Republic.”

However, he cautioned: “It would be unwise to retaliate against British bases and I very much hope they won’t.”

The post [Iran could be next Syria, warns former British ambassador][4] appeared first on [Declassified UK][5].

[1]: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-special-address-by-mark-carney-prime-minister-of-canada/
[2]: https://www.declassifieduk.org/?post_type=post&p=62287
[3]: https://www.declassifieduk.org/?post_type=post&p=62287
[4]: https://www.declassifieduk.org/iran-could-be-next-syria-warns-former-british-ambassador/
[5]: https://www.declassifieduk.org


https://www.declassifieduk.org/iran-could-be-next-syria-warns-former-british-ambassador/