Update

https://x.com/mtmalinen/status/2027692221374382428

Updates to #2 and #8 based on excellent comments I received here yesterday. 

1. Israel and the U.S. strike several cities and military installations in Iran while activating domestic terror cells still intact within Iran.
2. Iran delivers an overwhelming counterattack using its naval assets and the most advanced missiles in its arsenal, creating wide-spread devastation in Israel and hitting several U.S. bases in the region. 
3. The U.S. and Israeli forces resort to an all-out terror bombing campaign, also hitting civilian targets in Tehran and other major cities.
4. Iran launches an assault on the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) in the Arabian Sea and/or on the USS Gerald Ford CSG off the coast of Israel with proxies, inflicting heavy losses and sinking several ships. Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz for all except Chinese and Russian vessels.
5. China, Russia, and numerous other countries worldwide urge restraint, yet their appeals go unheeded. Iran enables its nuclear weapon program with the aim of manufacturing six nuclear weapons in a month.
6. The U.S. launches a massive bombing campaign of Iran with B-52 and B-2 strategic bombers, while Iran unleashes a full barrage of naval and aerial assets (missiles and drones) against all U.S. bases and assets in the region. A cycle of escalating retaliatory strikes engulfs the region.
7. Israel nukes Iran after suffering devastating losses from continuing Iranian missile strikes. Iran retaliates by leveling most of Tel Aviv, possibly with nukes it may have been developing in secret.
8. The U.S. launches a nuclear attack against Iran (partly to stave off the risk of Israel enacting the ‘Samson Option’).
9. Russia steps in, destroying U.S. assets in the region using hypersonic missiles.
10. Russia or the U.S. launches a nuclear strike, with the other party responding.
Nuclear war erupts.

28.02.26