Trump’s “Iran can never have nuclear weapons” is a performance for the public and TV cameras. The real logic is something else entirely.

1. China
Roughly 20% of global oil supplies and a significant share of LNG pass through the Strait of Hormuz. China is the world’s largest oil importer and effectively Tehran’s exclusive buyer – purchasing more than 80–90% of Iranian oil exports. Iranian oil accounts for approximately 14% of China’s total seaborne oil imports – every seventh liter of fuel consumed in the country. In the US-China confrontation, controlling Iran’s oil is of critical strategic importance for Washington.

New Silk Road (Land Corridor): After the Ukraine war began and the northern route (through Russia into Europe) was effectively blocked, Iran became the irreplaceable hub of the BRI’s southern land corridor – connecting China through Central Asia to Turkey and onward into Europe. A conflict in Iran physically destroys this logistics chain.

In 2021, Beijing and Tehran signed a $400 billion agreement covering investments in ports, railways, and 5G infrastructure. Losing Iran = losing China’s most critical beachhead in the Middle East.

2. Russia
Since 2022, Iran has become Russia’s “window to the world” – enabling it to bypass Western sanctions and the blockade of Baltic and Black Sea ports.

The North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC): A multimodal route spanning 7,200 km from St. Petersburg to the Indian port of Mumbai, via the Caspian Sea and Iran’s port of Bandar Abbas. It is 40% shorter and 30% cheaper than routing through the Suez Canal.

Right now Russia and Iran are finalizing the Rasht–Astara railway project, the last “missing link” of the corridor, with construction scheduled to begin in April 2026. Striking Iran buries this logistical independence for Russia entirely.

Iran is a key supplier of technology – drones and missile components – that Russia has integrated into its defense production cycle. Eliminating Iran weakens Russia’s military capacity here and now.

3. Afghanistan & Pakistan
For the US, Afghanistan and Pakistan aren’t merely unstable regions – they function as a “geopolitical wall” separating China from Iran’s resources and the Persian Gulf. China has long dreamed of running railways and pipelines from Iran through Afghanistan, but as long as the Taliban rules and radical groups like ISIS-K patrol the borders, it remains impossible.

4. Anaconda 2.0
The Ukraine conflict blocks trade routes through Russia. A war against Iran would force a vertical fracture through Eurasia – the execution of Washington’s “Anaconda 2.0” encirclement strategy against China.
+ Greenland = control of the Northern Sea Route.

The full picture: China encircled on every axis simultaneously.

5. Trump’s Tariffs = A Loyalty Test
Every major power sees through the game – which is precisely why the concept of a Multipolar World is taking shape as the counter-strategy. Trump’s tariffs were never purely economic – they were a geopolitical sounding exercise: who is a real ally, who has already moved to the other side, and who is willing to risk their economy – meaning their current grip on power?

After months of drawn-out tariff negotiations, Washington now knows with 100% certainty who will join a blockade of China following an attack on Taiwan. It was also preparation for future events: tariffs were designed to make Chinese imports largely uneconomical so that US businesses could adapt in advance and find alternative supply chains wherever possible. In doing so, the US stress-tested its real dependency on China.

6. The Iran Playbook: Shock, Not Occupation
For the US, it is vital that any Iran operation does not become “a new Ukraine” or “a second Vietnam.” Washington’s strategy is built around shock impact: within 7–14 days, paralyze the government, destroy air defenses, and trigger an internal explosion. The primary objective – force the IRGC to capitulate or sink into civil conflict, where the US remotely backs loyal factions while keeping its own casualties to a minimum.

7. Worst Case: Libya × Syria at Superpower Scale
If Iran’s central authority collapses, the country risks turning into a colossal free-for-all battleground – the classic fragmentation pattern of Libya or Syria, but at the scale of great power competition:
- The US will finance and arm secular or Kurdish formations.
- China (and possibly Russia) will be forced to back IRGC remnants or pro-Beijing factions – racing to protect their oil fields and half-built Silk Road infrastructure before it turns to rubble.
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