2026-03-01 02:00 UTC | ⛏️ 938799

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1. Khamenei Killed in US-Israel Airstrike
-- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and top Iranian officials died in recent US and Israeli strikes on Tehran, prompting US to continue bombing for a week.
-- Creates Iranian power vacuum amid regime instability, aligning with Polymarket odds hitting 100% for Khamenei out by Feb 28 and 37% for regime fall by March 31.

2. Iran Launches Missile Counterstrikes
-- Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel and US Gulf bases in retaliation to strikes killing Khamenei.
-- Risks wider Middle East war, boosting oil prices 3-4% on supply fears and pressuring low US-Iran strike odds at 0%.

3. Oil Prices Surge on Iran Tensions
-- Brent crude rose over 3% to $72+ per barrel due to US-Iran conflict disrupting potential supply. 
-- Heightens global inflation risks and macro uncertainty, tied to elevated geopolitical odds like Iranian regime fall at 37%. 

4. Bitcoin Drops Amid Geopolitical Risk
-- BTC fell ~3-6% to ~$66k on profit-taking, Trump tariffs, and Iran tensions despite bullish on-chain demand. 
-- Reflects crypto sensitivity to macro shocks, with no >5% single move but broader market fear from geopolitics.