It looks like Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz in response to the recent joint military strike by the U.S. and Israel. Nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through this critical shipping route — a shutdown could trigger a major oil price spike and disrupt global markets.

Geopolitical tensions are rising fast. Increased uncertainty is historically negative for stocks and other risk assets, while fueling demand for safe havens. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, expect volatility in equities and a strong move in gold prices as investors rotate into the safe-haven trade next week.

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