Germany macro outlook:
- Manufacturing's contribution to total gross value added is diminishing
- Most recently, this stood at around 20% in real terms, approx. matching the 2005 level
- Output declined significantly more than gross value added
- The latter also shows a downward trend, but remains at a high level
- The disparity between gross value added and output reflects a shift in value chains
- Business surveys indicate a significant deterioration in Germany's competitiveness since 2022
- Compared to other EU member states, Germany performs worse
- Actual export performance has also declined significantly since 2015
- Overall, German export pertormance is in a historic crisis
- This is primarily attributable to structural problems

Source: Deutsche Bank
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