Polling expert says ‘seismic’ by-election loss could put Labour in ‘dustbin of history’ [Greens] Polling expert John Curtice has reacted to the Green Party’s “seismic” [by-election win in Gorton and Denton][1]. And he suggests it could be a further step towards putting both Labour and the Conservatives in the “[dustbin of history][2]“. Speaking to the media on 27 February, Curtice: * Highlighted prime minister Keir Starmer’s [hopelessness at connecting with working-class voters][3] and stopping [his party’s self-inflicted decline][4]. * Said it’s increasingly clear that voters are [fully prepared to dump both Labour and the Conservatives][5]. * Insisted the Tory-Labour duopoly has “[never looked weaker][6]“. ## Greens replace Labour: A working-class woman enters ‘the history books’ Curtice challenged the historic conception that Labour is the “party of working people”. And he suggested the Greens had produced a real masterstroke by putting forward: > a very articulate working-class woman, sounding much more… authentically working class than the vast bulk of Labour MPs > Professor John Curtice: > > The new Green Party MP sounded much more authentically working class than the vast majority of Labour MPs. [pic.twitter.com/FxrySn7Gl0][7] > > — Tory Fibs (@ToryFibs) [February 27, 2026][8] Curtice has long insisted that [Starmer’s mimicry of far-right Reform UK is a doomed strategy][9]. He previously highlighted that a [right-wing Labour][10] was losing far more voters to the Green Party and Liberal Democrats than it was to Reform. And he suggested [actually improving the NHS and the economy][11] would be the [real vote winner][12]. At the same time, a [monumental rise in the popularity][13] of the Green Party under Zack Polanski’s leadership has bitten a massive chunk out of Labour’s voter base. And Curtice believes more and more people are becoming aware that Starmer is thoroughly unable to stop Labour’s decline: > Sir John Curtice: "Voters are willing to vote for parties other than the conventional, traditional parties." > > Translation: The establishment just got steamrolled by someone who unblocks toilets for a living. But please, continue your navel-gazing about what it all *means*. [pic.twitter.com/w3UCan8LaF][14] > > — Candice Holmes (@hol40900) [February 27, 2026][15] Gorton and Denton isn’t an outlier, Curtice insists. Instead, it’s part of a growing trend of the Tory-Labour duopoly tanking and the Greens rising: > The Greens’ by election victory raises 'major questions' about the traditional dominance of Labour and the Conservatives as the leading political parties, says polling guru Sir John Curtice. [pic.twitter.com/T19VfSD4NG][16] > > — BBC Radio 4 Today (@BBCr4today) [February 27, 2026][17] ## The long Tory-Labour march into the “dustbin of history” As an election for “the history books”, Curtice [said][18]: * The Greens have got their “first ever” parliamentary by-election win. * The Tories got “their worst ever by-election result”. * It’s the “first time”, except for “when Labour disowned their candidate” in Rochdale in 2024, that “neither Labour nor the Conservatives have been one of the top two parties in a by-election contest”. * Labour had its “13th biggest ever fall” in by-election support. > John Curtice: "There are particular elections we all remember.. this is going to be up with those in the history books and in our political memory. This is a seismic event" [pic.twitter.com/2t9h32ExID][19] > > — Saul Staniforth (@SaulStaniforth) [February 27, 2026][20] Gorton and Denton didn’t just show that the Tories have little chance of stopping a Reform that’s given the right a fascist face-lift. It also showed that the Greens can defeat Labour by [proudly representing hope and compassion][21]. The seismic shift in British politics is leaving the old establishment parties flailing. And the Tory-Labour duopoly is looking increasingly powerless to prevent their fall into the “dustbin of history”: > 'It’s not clear that Labour or the Conservatives will be able to fend off these challenges anymore…' > > Political scientist Sir John Curtice tells Nick Ferrari that the Green’s historic by-election win threatens the UK's traditional two-party system. [pic.twitter.com/W2dp8yzehP][22] > > — LBC (@LBC) [February 27, 2026][23] *Featured image via the Canary* By [Ed Sykes][24] [1]: https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2026/02/27/gorton-and-denton-win/ [2]: https://x.com/LBC/status/2027290102494384134 [3]: https://x.com/ToryFibs/status/2027370839344046387 [4]: https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2025/09/29/polling-expert-reveals-whats-really-pushing-people-away-from-labour/ [5]: https://x.com/hol40900/status/2027275644178948253 [6]: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwygpdjq9jjo [7]: https://t.co/FxrySn7Gl0 [8]: https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/2027370839344046387?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw [9]: https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2025/09/29/polling-expert-reveals-whats-really-pushing-people-away-from-labour/ [10]: https://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2024 [11]: https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2025/09/29/polling-expert-reveals-whats-really-pushing-people-away-from-labour/ [12]: https://www.thecanary.co/uk/analysis/2025/04/29/labour-election-polling/ [13]: https://www.facebook.com/thegreenparty/posts/-breaking-the-green-party-now-has-over-190000-members-membership-growth-polling-/1449787573169786/ [14]: https://t.co/w3UCan8LaF [15]: https://twitter.com/hol40900/status/2027275644178948253?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw [16]: https://t.co/T19VfSD4NG [17]: https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/2027288814029345275?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw [18]: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwygpdjq9jjo [19]: https://t.co/2t9h32ExID [20]: https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/2027257293956378714?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw [21]: https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2025/12/05/zack-polanski-bbc-bias/ [22]: https://t.co/W2dp8yzehP [23]: https://twitter.com/LBC/status/2027290102494384134?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw [24]: https://www.thecanary.co/author/oso/ https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2026/02/27/greens-seismic-win/