Interesting X post

https://x.com/mtmalinen/status/2027429518047072549

Time to update my worst-case scenario for Iran-Israel war from April 18, 2024, to include the U.S. fully.

1. Israel and the U.S. strike several cities and military  installations in Iran while activating domestic terror cells still intact within Iran.
2. Iran  delivers an overwhelming counterattack using its naval assets and the  most advanced missiles in its arsenal, delivering the worst-case scenario for Israel.
3. The  U.S. and Israeli forces resort to an all-out terror bombing campaign,  also hitting civilian targets in Tehran and other major cities.
4. Iran  launches an assault on the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group  (CSG) in the Arabian Sea and/or on the USS Gerald Ford CSG off the coast of Israel with proxies, inflicting heavy losses and sinking several  ships, and closes the Strait of Hormuz for all except Chinese and Russian vessels.
5. China, Russia, and numerous other countries worldwide urge restraint, yet their appeals go unheeded.
6. Iran enables its nuclear weapon program with the aim of manufacturing six nuclear weapons in a month.
7. The  U.S. launches a massive bombing campaign of Iran with B-52 and B-2  strategic bombers, while Iran unleashes a full barrage of naval and  aerial assets (missiles and drones) against all U.S. bases and assets in  the region. A cycle of escalating retaliatory strikes engulfs the region.
8. Israel nukes Iran after suffering  devastating losses from continuing Iranian missile strikes. Iran retaliates by leveling most of Tel Aviv, possibly with nukes it may have been developing in secret.
9. Russia steps in, destroying U.S. assets in the region using hypersonic missiles.
10. Russia or the U.S. launches a nuclear strike, with the other party responding. 
Nuclear war erupts.

Original, with links, published in Tuomas Malinen on Geopolitics and the Economy (link in bio).

27.02.26