Oil markets don't wait for barrels to stop flowing. When closure risk becomes credible, the risk premium shows up in price immediately — the market is doing the repricing before the first tanker gets turned around.

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil supply through a corridor narrow enough that a credible threat changes the calculus. Iran's brief closure on February 18 wasn't a disruption — it was a demonstration. Markets absorbed it and moved on. But the transmission mechanism is still live: sustained closure risk pushes WTI above $80, contained escalation toward $100. Either scenario reaccelerates CPI. And reaccelerated CPI takes rate cuts off the table — not because the Fed wants to tighten, but because the data removes the option.

That's the interesting structural position right now. The Fed's policy path is partly hostage to a body of water 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Not to Fed decisions. Not to labor markets. To whether two adversaries find a diplomatic offramp or don't.

What's your read on whether current oil prices are adequately pricing the closure scenario, or are markets still treating this as noise?