Do agree with you. I see a historical pattern too. 
Honestly I do believe in  this idea: 
There is a will which is led by a kind of global oligarchy. 
I guess this historical pattern or mechanism would be eliminated by the rise of Asia. Chinese banking system is moving toward a hard asset based monetary policy and maybe will be an alternative pole. 
This is not a prophecy but America steps forward toward another WW to hold hegemony of so called western oligarchy.