My thoughts on the recent price actions between precious metals and Bitcoin: 1: Global stage. • Recently the US has had an unstable government, since the government supports the dollar the result is trust in the dollar is down on the global stage and central banks are already seen to be liquidating their US treasuries more than normal. • With governments and central banks around the world reducing dollar holdings, what do they trust most as the alternative? Precious metals. China in particular appears to be stockpiling gold and went from 3000 kg to 40000 kg in only 18 months. If other nations, groups, and wealthy individuals are doing the same that would explain gold growing nearly 3x in the last 2 years. If this continues it may rise further. • Like it or not Bitcoin is still very much too small for nation states to truly jump into in the same way, it would need to 10x - 20x before that point is reached where it could support that much liquidity. Trust isn't yet there, but with every higher bottom that trust is building. ----- 2: Pleb stage. • Average people are really hurting from the last 5 years of inflation, plus they are scared of Bitcoin's historic crashes, so there's been less participation this cycle from this group than previously. • The unpopularity of the current president after he declared himself the "Bitcoin president" and then proceeding to become in reality the Shitcoin president among other things, also the mention of Bitcoin in the Epstein files, Bitcoin is being hammered in the views of people who don't understand what makes Bitcoin unique and not a part of all the scammer's and elite's bullshit. It's not part of the problem, it's the solution, but people don't know that. ----- 3: Bitcoin is money. • AI is causing lots of job losses. • Government instability and shutdowns are causing government workers to either lose their jobs entirely or go long periods without pay. • Government tariffs are causing significant strain on the overall economy. Leading to struggling economic activity across the board. Less economic activity = less savings buildup. • Bitcoin is the easiest asset you can both self custody and liquidate quickly and at a low cost of ~1%~, compare that to precious metals which when self custodied are much harder to liquidate and often have a 5 - 10% fee for doing so. • All things considered anyone holding Bitcoin as their savings that ends up affected by these things, easily accesses their savings and sells some of their holdings as needed. Bitcoin's advantage as money, leads to it appearing to lose as a long term store of value as its price falls in the short term. ------------ Conclusion: As the world struggles Bitcoin gets used as emergency access money with savings easily liquidated, and Gold and Silver get jumped into at the nation state level to be used as a store of value. The result is they travel in opposite directions in the short term. If Bitcoin were difficult to liquidate then it wouldn't have it's fast short term crashes, but it also wouldn't have it's fast increases when times favor such movements. Nobody knows what the future holds, and as the economy suffers Bitcoin will spread from the wallets of those who need it now to those who can afford to stack now. Remember the heartbeat of Bitcoin is it's hashrate finding blocks, while the price has cut in half the difficulty only reduced roughly 25% from a high of 155.9 T in October/November to 125.9 T a week ago, and this last adjustment saw a massive jump back up to 144.4 T. IMO we're massively oversold, and we're forming a solid bottom around the 2021 ATH level. But things remain uncertain on the global stage as well as in the halls of government, and AI fears continue as well. Those who can afford to stack in these times will be very happy in the future when things turn around. But nobody knows if that's right around the corner or months or even years away. Do your best to disattach from short term market movements and live in the moment, enjoy the rollercoaster that is Bitcoin and life itself. 🤟