For the first time ever, I am not convinced that Bitcoin will return to its previous all-time high

The reason is simple: there is no bullish narrative 

Store of value/digital gold/reserve asset? 

It all imploded once institutions got cold feet because of quantum computing risks

Freedom money? 

The project didn’t undergo any upgrades to scale better and receive better privacy. You can only get high throughput & anonymity on ruggable federations, mints & other centralized services. 

Unconfiscatable wealth? 

Not so long ago, we witnessed unironic conversations about freezing dust UTXOs. Some people also talk about freezing Satoshi’s coins in the post-quantum future. Both are dangerous precedents that threaten the network’s main value proposition. 

Permissionless money? 

There’s an ongoing debate about gatekeeping certain transaction types which an army of religious zealots describes as “spam”. Also, the BitVM builders are already frowned upon for bringing “shitcoin tech” to Bitcoin and filling the block space in unorthodox ways. 

One coin to rule them all? 

The current Bitcoin maintainers are against adding anything controversial to Bitcoin. CTV, CSFS, CAT, GSR, BIP300 will probably never happen for as long as there is one popular voice that opposes activation. Which only lends legitimacy to altcoins trying the tech. 

Beautiful stories about the noble and pure money system that fights against central banking? 

The Epstein files have effectively tainted the reputation of Bitcoin in the eyes of many normies. Biggest devs were under MIT’s paycheck, some folks even visited Epstein’s island in a time that was crucial for the project’s development. Reputations were destroyed, hopes were broken, new conspiracies emerged. 

The cyber hornet hivemind that brings peace, unity & laser eyes?

The Bitcoin community has never been more divided and hostile – even to people who have been around for many years and brought significant contributions to the project. The purity tests have become so ridiculous that any sane person would purposely fail them. 

Retail grassroots adoption? 

People still remember FTX, BlockFi, Celsius, and the other failures of the previous cycle. Lots of money was lost, harsh lessons were learned, the likeliness of having these people embrace decentralized internet money is lower than ever. 

Hedge against inflation?

Oh please, Tether has never been more popular world wide. To third world countries, USDT is the inflation hedge and the most desired medium of exchange. Even in the US the stablecoins are hotter than Bitcoin. 

The great power grid stabilizer? 

US miners are pivoting to AI because it pays better. Chinese ones are doing it too. Proof of Work mining is becoming less popular. 

The uncorrelated asset to protect you and your family from a total financial collapse?

Oh please, Bitcoin trades like a tech stock. People invest in it because they hope it will one day fulfill its potential as a global digital cash. So when the stock market crashes, Bitcoin follows the trend. 

Will Bitcoin survive the reward halvings with empty blocks? Are people willing to pay $100 per transaction?

There is still a looming uncertainty concerning these situations. Mostly because a bunch of loud gatekeepers shunned away all experiments that could turn into valuable use cases. 

Also remember: with the exception of last year’s bubble, every massive bull market has been precedes by a notable network upgrade. 

Bitcoin needs a new philosophy which embraces innovation in cryptography and computer science, nurtures experimentation & encourages builders to stick around. 

Arrogant close mindedness won’t work again this time.