Trump’s tariffs dominated the macro landscape last year.

They reduced global dollar liquidity, putting pressure on liquid and risk assets like Bitcoin, crypto, and equities.

At the same time, they pushed neutral reserve and safe-haven assets such as gold and silver significantly higher, as rising uncertainty drove capital away from dollar-denominated assets. Tariffs strained global liquidity and further eroded trust in the dollar-based financial system.

Today, the Supreme Court ruled Trump’s tariffs illegal. Trump responded by reimposing the tariffs under Section 122 (don’t know what that means). This suggests the issue may evolve into a prolonged legal battle.

If the Trump administration ultimately loses that battle, it could meaningfully shift market momentum.

A tariff reversal would likely increase global dollar liquidity, benefiting risk assets such as Bitcoin, crypto, and stocks.

If refunds are mandated (slide 2), that would inject additional liquidity ($175+ billion) into the system. However, it would also widen U.S. deficits due to reduced revenue, increasing national debt, pressuring the U.S. Treasury market, and leading to further monetary expansion. Currently, Polymarket assigns a 33% probability that tariff refunds will be required (slide 3).

It remains uncertain whether tariffs will ultimately stay in place, but today’s ruling significantly increased the probability of their removal.

#tariffs #supremecourt #SCOTUS #MarketLiquidity #TrumpTariffs

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