2026-02-10 11:00 UTC | ⛏️ 935898

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1. Bitcoin crashes 52% from late 2025 peak
-- Bitcoin fell from near $126,000 in late October 2025 to the $60,000–$70,000 range by early February 2026, a 52% drawdown triggered by Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh and broader macro uncertainty.
-- The sharp decline triggered $2.1 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows and exposed institutional leverage dynamics, though analysts debate whether this represents cycle-normal correction or structural market regime shift.

2. New START nuclear treaty expires in February
-- The last treaty limiting US-Russian long-range nuclear arsenals expires February 5, 2026, with replacement negotiations unlikely in time.
-- This opens path for new nuclear arms race as Trump administration signals willingness to resume US nuclear testing, while China rapidly expands its arsenal and allied nations reconsider nuclear options.

3. OpenAI commits $10B to compute infrastructure
-- OpenAI signed multibillion-dollar deal with Cerebras Systems for up to 750 megawatts of computing power over three years, valued at over $10 billion.
-- The agreement accelerates AI inference capabilities while reducing reliance on Nvidia and Microsoft Azure, signaling intensifying infrastructure competition as companies race to scale AI systems.

4. Fed holds rates steady; Warsh nomination signals tighter policy
-- Federal Reserve held federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in January meeting, pausing three consecutive 2025 rate cuts as inflation remains sticky in the 2.5%-3% range.
-- Warsh nomination as potential Fed chair sparked market turbulence due to his hawkish stance on rates and smaller balance sheet, signaling possible policy reversal from current easing trajectory.

5. Taiwan-China tensions escalate as US signals confrontation readiness
-- US-China great-power competition, fragmenting global order, and unprecedented military conflicts worldwide—Ukraine, Middle East, Venezuela, Asia—drive 2026 national security focus with Taiwan as flashpoint.
-- Council on Foreign Relations identifies Taiwan crisis and Russia-NATO clashes as 50-50 probability events with potential to draw US into direct military conflict with China or Russia.