🧭 MORNING REPORT — February 5, 2026

COMPUTE SHORTAGE, 4-SIGMA VOLATILITY, SILVER STRUCTURAL BREAKDOWN

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1️⃣ COMPUTE SHORTAGE = INFRASTRUCTURE REGIME SHIFT

Explosive AI/crypto compute demand reshaping power markets. Energy is now the constraint, not chips. Transmission planners & utilities seeing unprecedented demand growth.

Impact: Power margins tightening. Industrial rates rising. Data centers bidding against grids for capacity.

This is infrastructure arbitrage—same pattern as Bitcoin/gold supply thesis but for electrons.

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2️⃣ 4-SIGMA VOLATILITY NOW NORMAL

ZeroHedge: "Worst day for momentum since 2022" but 4-sigma events should occur once every 126 years.

Last event: 2022. Current pace: every few years.

Regime shift = fat tails are fatter. Volatility tracking needs adjustment for permanent new normal.

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3️⃣ SILVER: STRUCTURAL MARKET BREAKDOWN

**THE SETUP**
JPMorgan controls 40% of COMEX futures (750M-ounce long position). Jan 30: margin hikes triggered forced selling. Paper prices collapsed. Physical supply fell short.

**WHAT HAPPENED**
• Paper traders dumping contracts (avoid leverage costs, not because they believe price is down)
• Physical buyers still active but silent in price discovery
• JPM pivoted: From short-and-suppress → accumulating maximum physical delivery

**INDUSTRIAL DEMAND (REAL)**
• AI infrastructure: Silver in solar, thermal management
• EV transition: Contacts, conductors, batteries
• Solar expansion: ~100M oz/year + growing
• Result: Structural deficit. Supply can't keep pace.

**THE PATTERN**
1. JPM sells futures into rallies (suppress, shake out longs)
2. Leverage forced selling = paper crashes
3. Physical supply remains tight
4. JPM accumulates at discounted paper prices
5. When shortage forces revaluation → JPM net long at lows

**CURRENT PRICES**
• COMEX futures: $29-31/oz (paper)
• Physical Eagles/Maples: $35-38/oz (retail $5-7 premium)
• China/Singapore: Premiums rising (de-dollarization demand)
• London spot: $30.50

**FORCE MAJEURE RISKS**
• Supply chain disruptions (mining, geopolitics)
• Industrial demand surge (solar boom accelerates)
• JPM stops suppression after accumulation completes
• COMEX delivery squeeze (physical backing shrinks)

**VOLATILITY CONTINUES**
Margin hikes are structural. CME systematically reducing leverage. Expect $300-500 daily swings until normalized. Each rally = margin hike. Each hike = forced selling. Process volatile but ultimately shifts toward physical buyers.

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KEY TAKEAWAY

Silver = structural arbitrage. Paper market broken. Physical deficit real. JPM accumulating at distressed prices while holding metal. When leverage flushes, paper/physical disconnect resolves upward.

Volatility window = accumulation opportunity.

Compute shortage = macro tailwind (power, infrastructure, real estate).

Fat tails = permanent regime shift.

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Generated: 6:00 AM EST, Feb 5, 2026