yeah, the thing about bitcoin, also, is it is extremely liquid, there is so many places to exchange it. this means that it will be one of the later assets to get jumped on when people are fleeing fiat money, because they can put it off for longer.

a lot of nocoiners think that the current state of bitcoin's price is some indication that "proves" that bitcoin is not a counter-inflationary asset. it most definitely is that, but the friction for moving ready cash into it is far lower than gold and silver, even if you count mere paper claims on COMEX. so bitcoin *should* come after PMs in the crack-up boom, because it has such easy liquidity.

some of the price depression is due to rehypothecation, this is part of the issue with it, but i am pretty sure, that the real reason is that confidence in the fiat economy hasn't fully collapsed yet. but the signs of imminent liquidation of weaker assets and equities and businesses are definitely here, if you are looking closer and thinking in longer time windows.

usually the point at which everyone starts to agree there is a crash is when it flushes over-leveraged banks, who have too many loans on the books, and too little income from interest payments.

i have no idea which quarter of the map is going to be where the contagion starts but it inevitably will start. another thing that is a bit different from now and 2007 and 2000 is that we have a US president now who is similar to Reagan, in many ways. i expect soon there will be the coining of a name for his thing, trumpenomics or something like this, since we had reaganomics and obamanomics. in all three cases they instituted policies that were somewhat novel compared to historical, and i think that kinda makes people optimistic since something that wasn't done before may not fail like things that were.